How does this market settle?

Polymarket resolves it once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Runoffs count. Each option refers to the party's nominee, so if a named nominee is replaced before Election Day, that option follows the replacement. Independents don't count as Democrats or Republicans, even if they're aligned with a party.

Florida Governor 2026 Odds: Live Polymarket Chances

What this market asks

Who will win Florida's 2026 governor's race? The main options are Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds. Each price is the market's implied chance that candidate wins.

The bottom line

Polymarket gives Republican Byron Donalds 79.5% and Democrat David Jolly 20.5% for Florida's open governor's seat, on about $0.3 million traded. Donalds was about 91% early in the year. Odds as of 4:00 PM PT, October 15, 2026.

What moved it

Mid-February: first slide. Donalds slipped from about 91% to 82%. We didn't find a specific cause.

April 3: the low. Donalds fell from 80% to 70% on April 3, the day after Emerson released a poll with Donalds ahead of Jolly by only 44% to 39%, with 15% undecided (Emerson College Polling, Apr. 2). The timing fits, but we can't prove the poll caused the drop.

Since then: a 72% to 85% range. Donalds recovered to about 80% by May and has traded mostly between the mid-70s and mid-80s. There was a brief dip to 72% around September 22–23 that we couldn't explain. On a thinly traded market, swings like this can come from a few large trades.

How it settles

Polymarket resolves this market once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Polymarket's own market page has the full rules.

Who's calling it

See 3 forecaster calls on X for this race, with links to each post →

Emerson (Mar. 29–31): Donalds 44%, Jolly 39% (Emerson).
We didn't verify a more recent dated forecast, so we aren't citing one.

The contrarian take

The strongest dated data against the market is Emerson's 5-point Donalds lead, closer than a 79.5% price might suggest. Emerson still had Donalds ahead, though, and it's more than six months old. We didn't find a credible current forecast making Jolly the favorite.

What to watch

New nonpartisan general-election polls.
Election Day, November 3.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.

Florida Governor Election Winner 2026

Current odds

Price history

Polymarket vs Kalshi