Iowa Senate Election Winner 2026

What this market asks

Who will win Iowa's 2026 U.S. Senate race? The main options are Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson. Each price is the market's implied chance that candidate wins.

The bottom line

Polymarket gives Republican Ashley Hinson 58.5% and Democrat Josh Turek 41.5%, on about $0.9 million traded. Hinson was about 79% a year ago. Odds as of 4:00 PM PT, October 15, 2026.

What moved it

November 2025: first drop. Hinson slipped from about 79% to 71.5% in mid-November. We couldn't find a clear cause.

February 1: another step down. Hinson fell from 65% to 56% on February 1, then recovered to about 61% within two days. We couldn't find news that explains it. On a thinly traded market, swings like this can come from a few large trades.

June 2 primary: no big move. Turek won the Democratic primary with about 63% over Zach Wahls, and Hinson won the Republican primary with about 74% (Iowa Secretary of State). The price barely moved; both were expected.

September 22: the low point. Hinson fell from about 60% to 50% on September 21–22, the day Marist released a poll with Turek ahead 50% to 42% among registered voters (fieldwork Sept. 17–20) (Marist, Sept. 22). Hinson recovered to about 56% within days.

How it settles

Polymarket resolves this market once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Polymarket's own market page has the full rules.

Who's calling it

See 3 forecaster calls on X for this race, with links to each post →

• Marist (Sept. 17–20): Turek 50%, Hinson 42%. In the same poll, 59% of voters said they expect Hinson to win anyway (Marist).
• We didn't verify a published forecast model for this race, so we're not citing one.

The contrarian take

The strongest real dissent from the market is Marist's 8-point Turek lead. The market still has Hinson ahead at 58.5%. For Marist to be right, Iowa's lean toward Democrats on the generic ballot in that poll (50% to 45%) would have to hold through Election Day. Marist also measured registered voters, not likely voters.

What to watch

• Likely-voter polls from nonpartisan pollsters.
• Whether the market's view, which matches what Iowa voters told Marist they expect, holds up.
• Election Day, November 3.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.