New Hampshire Senate Election Winner 2026

What this market asks

Who will win New Hampshire's 2026 U.S. Senate race? The main options are Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu. Each price is the market's implied chance that candidate wins.

The bottom line

Polymarket gives Democrat Chris Pappas 88.5% and Republican John E. Sununu 12.5% for New Hampshire's open Senate seat, on about $0.3 million traded. Odds as of 4:00 PM PT, October 15, 2026.

What moved it

March: two dips. Pappas fell from about 84% to 68% on March 6 and was back at 86% the next day. Then he slid from about 90% on March 22 to about 76% by March 28, and recovered to the mid-80s by mid-April. We couldn't find news that explains either move. On a thinly traded market, swings like this can come from a few large trades.

Summer to fall: steady. Pappas traded between about 80% and 86% from May through September, then rose to 88.5% in October.

How it settles

Polymarket resolves this market once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Polymarket's own market page has the full rules.

Who's calling it

See 2 forecaster calls on X for this race, with links to each post →

• Sabato's Crystal Ball moved New Hampshire from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic on October 14 (Newsweek).

The contrarian take

We didn't find a credible, dated public forecast that rates Sununu the favorite.

What to watch

• Nonpartisan polls of Pappas versus Sununu.
• Election Day, November 3.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.