How does this market settle?

Polymarket resolves it once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Runoffs count. Each option refers to the party's nominee, so if a named nominee is replaced before Election Day, that option follows the replacement. Independents don't count as Democrats or Republicans, even if they're aligned with a party.

South Carolina Senate 2026 Odds: Live Polymarket Chances

What this market asks

Who will win South Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate race? The main options are Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Darline Graham Nordone. Each price is the market's implied chance that candidate wins.

The bottom line

Polymarket gives Republican Sen. Darline Graham Nordone 85.5% and Democrat Annie Andrews 15.5%, on about $0.8 million traded. Odds as of 4:00 PM PT, October 15, 2026.

What moved it

Early 2026: little trading. The Republican line sat at about 92% for months with few changes.

February: choppy decline. The Republican line swung between about 73% and 88% through February and settled near 80% by March. We couldn't find news that explains these moves. On a thinly traded market, swings like this can come from a few large trades.

July 11–13: Lindsey Graham's death. Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Republican nominee, died. On July 13 Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to the seat and set a special Republican primary for August 11, with a runoff August 25 (S.C. Governor, July 13). The Republican line dipped from 86% to 80% on July 12.

July 23: recovery. The Republican line jumped from 84% to 90% on July 23. Candidate filing for the special primary ran July 21–28 (same source), but we couldn't tie the jump to a specific event.

August 25 runoff. Graham beat Rep. Ralph Norman 52.4% to 47.6% (NBC News). The price eased from about 89% to 84% around the runoff.

How it settles

Polymarket resolves this market once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. The Republican option follows whoever is the party's nominee. Polymarket's own market page has the full rules.

Who's calling it

See 2 forecaster calls on X for this race, with links to each post →

We didn't find and verify a dated public forecast or recent nonpartisan poll for this race, so we aren't citing one.

The contrarian take

We didn't find a credible, dated public forecast that disagrees with the market's view that Republicans are strong favorites.

What to watch

Any public polling of Graham Nordone versus Andrews.
Election Day, November 3.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner 2026

Current odds

Price history

Polymarket vs Kalshi