Texas Governor Election Winner 2026

What this market asks

Who will win Texas's 2026 governor's race? The main options are Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott. Each price is the market's implied chance that candidate wins.

The bottom line

Polymarket gives Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 77.1% and Democrat Gina Hinojosa 22.5%, on about $0.6 million traded. Abbott was near 94% a year ago. Odds as of 4:00 PM PT, October 15, 2026.

What moved it

February 26: a one-day spike. Abbott dropped from 88% to 59% and was back at 82% the same day. We couldn't find news behind it. On a thinly traded market, swings like this can come from a few large trades.

March: first real slide. Abbott drifted from about 88% in early March to about 76% by March 24. We didn't find a single cause.

Summer: rebound. Abbott recovered to about 91% by mid-July. Again, no clear single cause.

September to October: back down. Abbott slipped into the mid-70s during September as a series of polls showed a close race. Marist (Sept. 23) had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 46% (USA TODAY, Oct. 5). On October 3, Abbott fell from 83% to about 76% on the same day The New York Times/Siena released a poll with Hinojosa ahead 49% to 46% among likely voters (same source). He has since recovered to about 77% to 80%.

How it settles

Polymarket resolves this market once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Polymarket's own market page has the full rules.

Who's calling it

See 3 forecaster calls on X for this race, with links to each post →

• NYT/Siena (Sept. 21–30): Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46% (USA TODAY).
• Other September polls split: Emerson (Sept. 17) had Abbott ahead 49% to 46%, and Mason-Dixon (Sept. 15) had him ahead 48% to 41% (same source).

The contrarian take

The strongest dissent is NYT/Siena's 3-point Hinojosa lead, from a high-rated pollster, against a market that makes Abbott a better than 3-in-4 favorite. For the poll to be right, a Democrat would need to win statewide in Texas, which hasn't happened since 1994. The market is betting on that history over the polls.

What to watch

• Early voting starts October 19 (same source).
• Whether more nonpartisan polls show Hinojosa ahead.
• Election Day, November 3.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.