Texas Senate Election Winner 2026

What this market asks

Who will win Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate race? The main options are Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. Each price is the market's implied chance that candidate wins.

How it settles

• Polymarket resolves it once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it waits for the official state certification. Runoffs count. Each option refers to the party's nominee, so if a named nominee is replaced before Election Day, that option follows the replacement. Independents don't count as Democrats or Republicans, even if they're aligned with a party.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.