Which party will win the House in 2026?

What this market asks

Which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterms? There's one option per party. Each option's price is the market's implied chance that party wins.

How it settles

• A party wins if it takes a majority of the House's voting seats in the 2026 midterms.
• If no party has a majority, control goes to the party of the first Speaker elected by the new (120th) Congress.
• Every seat counts for the party its winner ran under, even if that member switches parties or leaves before Congress convenes. Runoffs decide their seats.
• Independents count for a party if they caucus with it, or announce they will.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.