Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

What this market asks

Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the November 3, 2026 midterms? Each option's price is the market's implied chance that party wins the chamber.

How it settles

• A party wins if it holds a majority of the Senate's voting seats.
• In a 50–50 split, the party holding the Vice Presidency wins.
• If it's still unclear, control goes to the party of the first President pro tempore chosen by the new Congress.
• Regular and special Senate races scheduled for November 2026 (as of October 31) all count, and runoffs decide their seats even if they happen later. Seats not up for election stay with the party of their last holder.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's resolution rules. Polymarket's own market page has the full, official rules.