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Chargers at Chiefs

NFL Week 6 · Kickoff Sun Oct 18, 1:25 PM PT.

Data: Polymarket  Loading live data…

The market

Win chances

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Arrows show the change over the last 24 hours, in percentage points. Spread and total show Polymarket's main line, the one priced closest to 50-50.

Price history

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Polymarket vs Kalshi

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Gap is Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points. Kalshi prices are the midpoint of the current bid and ask. Both refresh about every 2 minutes.

CrowdKnew model lean

Chiefs to win

One of the model's strongest leans. The Chargers are winless, and Justin Herbert has thrown 7 interceptions.

Model lean, not betting advice. The reason is the model's own summary. Injury and lineup details in it haven't been independently checked unless they also appear under “Why it moved.”

Why it moved

The Chargers slid from about 42% to 28% by Oct. 2, then to about 20% by Oct. 6. We couldn't find dated news that explains the move, so the cause is unclear. This is a thinly traded market (about $4K so far), so a few trades can move it.

Who's calling it

Moneyline picks

AnalystPickPolymarket chanceResultSource
Nick Wright@getnickwrightChiefs to winMoneyline…Pending10/15 post ↗previewing Week 6 in the NFL, including ... the Chiefs putting a nail in Chargers' coffin.

See this game on the Week 6 board →

How it settles

  • The team that wins the game resolves Yes. Overtime counts.
  • If the game ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.
  • If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it's played. If it's canceled outright, it resolves 50-50.
  • Spread markets: the named team must win by more than the number (for example, -2.5 means by 3 or more). Total markets: Over wins if the combined final score is above the number. Overtime counts for both.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's rules. The market page has the full, official rules.