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Seahawks at Broncos

NFL Week 6 · Kickoff Thu Oct 15, 5:15 PM PT.

Data: Polymarket  Loading live data…

The market

Win chances

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Arrows show the change over the last 24 hours, in percentage points. Spread and total show Polymarket's main line, the one priced closest to 50-50.

Price history

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Polymarket vs Kalshi

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Gap is Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points. Kalshi prices are the midpoint of the current bid and ask. Both refresh about every 2 minutes.

CrowdKnew model lean

Broncos to win

Home field at altitude. (We dropped the model's note on Denver's secondary: other reports say Pat Surtain II is out, so it couldn't be confirmed.)

Model lean, not betting advice. The reason is the model's own summary. Injury and lineup details in it haven't been independently checked unless they also appear under “Why it moved.”

Why it moved

Seattle has traded in a 48% to 60% range since late September, with no single swing we could tie to dated news. The game kicked off Thursday at 5:15 PM PT, so the odds now move live with the score.

Who's calling it

Spread picks

AnalystPickPolymarket chanceResultSource
Jason Logan (Covers)@CoversSeahawks -2.5Spread…Pending10/15 post ↗"The champs are 4-0 SU after a loss since the start of last season, while Denver is 1-4 ATS on Thursdays under Sean Payton." - @JTFOz ... Seahawks -2.5

See this game on the Week 6 board →

How it settles

  • The team that wins the game resolves Yes. Overtime counts.
  • If the game ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.
  • If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it's played. If it's canceled outright, it resolves 50-50.
  • Spread markets: the named team must win by more than the number (for example, -2.5 means by 3 or more). Total markets: Over wins if the combined final score is above the number. Overtime counts for both.

This is a plain-English summary of Polymarket's rules. The market page has the full, official rules.